OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2016-2017

Valero Texas Open

2017-04-20 · TPC San Antonio - The Oaks Course

Winner
Kevin Chappell
Winning score
-12
Field
151
Field strength
-0.065 SG

The 2016-2017 Valero Texas Open was played at TPC San Antonio - The Oaks Course, starting 20 April 2017. Kevin Chappell won at 12 under par (276), 1 stroke ahead of Brooks Koepka. The winning card was 69, 68, 71 and 68, and the win paid $1,116,000. Brooks Koepka finished second, and Kevin Tway and Tony Finau tied for third. 151 players started the event. The field averaged -0.065 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 85% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 151. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 75 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Fgrade
Rank correlation
+0.161
Top-20 hit rate
45%
Top-10 avg model rank
25.5

Grade is this event’s percentile (10th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Ryan Moore1st18th
Matt Kuchar2nd40th
Brendan Steele3rd62nd
Adam Hadwin4th72nd
Brooks Koepka5th2nd
Ryan Palmer6th6th
Kevin Chappell7th1st
Jimmy Walker8th13th
Charley Hoffman9th40th
Branden Grace10th10th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Adam Hadwin4th72nd(+68)
Kevin Tway71st3rd(−68)
Brendan Steele3rd62nd(+59)
Robby Shelton74th16th(−58)
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castaño65th13th(−52)
Jason Kokrak16th67th(+51)
Carl Pettersson67th16th(−51)
J.J. Henry69th22nd(−47)
Anirban Lahiri26th72nd(+46)
Nicholas Lindheim73rd27th(−46)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

This event in the model

OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.

This week's modelProbabilities and the track recordHow the model works

The venue

This event was played at TPC San Antonio - The Oaks Course in San Antonio, Texas, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the Valero Texas Open in 2016-2017?

Kevin Chappell won the 2016-2017 Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio - The Oaks Course, finishing 12 under par.

Where was the 2016-2017 Valero Texas Open played?

The 2016-2017 Valero Texas Open was played at TPC San Antonio - The Oaks Course, starting 20 April 2017.

What was the winning score at the 2016-2017 Valero Texas Open?

The winning score was 12 under par (276 strokes), posted by Kevin Chappell.

How many players were in the Valero Texas Open field?

151 players started the 2016-2017 Valero Texas Open. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.