OTIS Golf

PGA Tour odds this weekBiltmore Championship Asheville

The Cliffs at Walnut Cove

The model’s chances for this week’s field, written as fair odds: the break-even price for each probability, with no margin added. These are not a market and not a quote — OTIS takes no bets. Every past board is graded on the probabilities page.

Model outputs and probabilities are information, not betting advice. No projection or probability is a guaranteed winner. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Fair odds — the break-even price for the model's probability, with no margin added. Not a market quote; OTIS takes no bets. full board and track record

Data published 1 September 2026 · refreshes every 15 minutes during play.

What these odds are

Every price on this page is OTIS's own probability for a player in this week's field, written in the units golf odds are usually read in. They are fairodds: the break-even price for the model's number, with no margin added to either side. A player the model gives a one-in-ten chance of winning prices at +900, because a tenth of the time a stake of one returns ten. That is a different object from a bookmaker's price, which is always shorter, because a book prices in its own cut on top of whatever it believes. OTIS quotes no market, takes no bets and settles nothing. The number exists so you can see what the model actually thinks, stated in a unit that can be set beside a price somewhere else rather than in a percentage that cannot.

How the odds are worked out

Each player in the field carries two published numbers: an adjusted strokes-gained rating for how well they score per round, and a spread for how much that varies. The model plays the tournament out many thousands of times from those two numbers — four rounds each, a cut applied on the 36-hole totals, and the winner taken as the best 72-hole total among the players who survived it. A player's win chance is the share of those simulations they finished on top of; top-five, top-ten and make-cut chances come from the same runs, so they can never contradict each other. The odds column is that probability converted exactly, not looked up: a favourite at probability p prices at −100p/(1−p) and everybody else at +100(1−p)/p, rounded to the five-point steps prices are normally quoted in. The methodology page sets out the simulation in full.

What these odds do not tell you

They are not a prediction of what will happen, and a long price is not a bad player. Golf is the sport where the strongest favourite in the field still loses far more weeks than they win, so a number like twelve per cent is a statement about a field of a hundred and fifty, not a forecast of Sunday. The rating behind each price is built from measured strokes-gained rounds, and players who have not played enough of them are flagged rather than quietly rated, because a confident price on a thin sample is the most misleading thing a model can produce. Nothing here prices an injury, a late withdrawal, the draw, or what the weather does on Thursday afternoon beyond what the ratings already imply. How the published probabilities have actually resolved is graded openly on the probabilities page.

Common questions

What are fair odds in golf?

Fair odds are a probability written in odds units with no margin added — the break-even price. A 10% chance is +900, a 50% chance is +100, an 80% chance is -400. A sportsbook's price for the same player is always shorter than the fair price, because the book adds its own cut. OTIS quotes the fair number only; it takes no bets and runs no market.

How often do this week's odds update?

The board regenerates whenever the pipeline republishes, which happens through the tournament week as the field settles and, during play, as rounds complete. The page shows the timestamp of the data it is displaying, and the basis it was generated on — pre-event, or in-play once scoring has started.

Does OTIS take bets or give betting advice?

No. OTIS publishes model outputs and the record of how they have resolved. Nothing on the site is a bet, a recommendation or advice, and no wager can be placed here.

Why do these odds differ from a sportsbook's?

Two reasons. The first is margin: a book's price includes its cut, so it is always shorter than a fair price for the same belief. The second is that the model is a different opinion from the market's — it is built from measured strokes gained and course fit, and it is published with its errors graded rather than defended.

Sourcing is set out on the methodology page; every stat name is defined in the glossary.