Probabilities
Model outputs and probabilities are information, not betting advice. No projection or probability is a guaranteed winner. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Win, top-5, top-10 and make-cut chances for the field, from a disclosed simulation over the adjusted true-SG rating — model outputs, not guarantees. Pre-event snapshots are append-only, and every past prediction is graded below.
Every odds column is the market beside it written as American odds, with no margin added — the break-even price, not a market quote. A real sportsbook price is always shorter, because it includes the book’s cut. We take no bets and price nothing.
Track record
Every published pre-event board is graded against the actual result after the tournament — Brier scores (lower is better; 0.25 is the coin-flip ceiling for a 50% claim) and observed frequency versus predicted. Nothing here is ever back-dated: the record starts at the first published snapshot.
No graded events yet
The record begins with the first predicted event — it will be graded here as soon as the tournament completes. An honest track record can only accrue forward.