The model
OTIS ranks a tournament field by blending three things: baseline skill from strokes gained, fit between a player’s game and the course, and current form. Everything the model produces lives here, along with an honest account of how well it has done.
This week
- Course fitThis week's field ranked by how well each player's game matches this course — and the same ranking for previous weeks.
- Win probabilitiesCalibrated chances for this week's field, with the track record of how those probabilities have actually resolved.
- Form rankingsWho is playing well right now, from strokes-gained form rather than results alone.
Previous weeks
The ranking exactly as it stood before each event started. These are snapshots, not reconstructions — they cannot be quietly rewritten after the fact.
How it scored
Each finished event re-run as the model would have seen it beforehand, then compared with the real finishing order. Across 614 events the median rank correlation is +0.291 — where 0 is a coin flip. These are backtests, not calls we published in advance.
| Event | Field | Correlation | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rocket Classic2026 | 73 | +0.377 | B |
| 3M Open2026 | 65 | +0.356 | B |
| The Open Championship2026 | 78 | +0.295 | C |
| Corales Puntacana Championship2026 | 70 | -0.010 | F |
| ISCO Championship2026 | 58 | +0.408 | B |
| Genesis Scottish Open2026 | 68 | +0.268 | C |
| John Deere Classic2026 | 75 | +0.345 | C |
| Travelers Championship2026 | 72 | +0.361 | B |
Where the model struggles
Venues whose events the model reads worst, across more than one edition. A course well below the median usually means something is wrong in its data — the wrong archetype, a wrong par, or a history split across renamed venues — rather than an unpredictable golf course.
- Congressional CC (Blue)+0.098(3 events)
- Grand Reserve Golf Club+0.112(13 events)
- Puntacana Resort & Club (Corales Golf Course)+0.113(9 events)
- El Cardonal at Diamante+0.170(3 events)
- PGA West (Palmer)+0.178(3 events)
- Royal Liverpool+0.178(2 events)