Tournaments / 2015-2016

Valero Texas Open

2016-04-21 · TPC San Antonio - The Oaks Course

Winner: Charley Hoffman
Winning score: -12
Field: 145
Field strength: +0.017 SG

The 2015-2016 Valero Texas Open was played at TPC San Antonio - The Oaks Course, starting 21 April 2016. Charley Hoffman won at 12 under par (276), 1 stroke ahead of Patrick Reed. The winning card was 66, 71, 70 and 69, and the win paid $1,116,000. Patrick Reed finished second, and Chad Collins was third. 145 players started the event. The field averaged +0.017 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 79% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 145. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.


1	Charley Hoffman	66	71	70	69	276	-12
2	Patrick Reed	65	73	70	69	277	-11
3	Chad Collins	73	69	67	69	278	-10
T4	Billy Horschel	70	72	67	70	279	-9
T4	Kevin Chappell	71	70	70	68	279	-9
T4	Martin Piller	70	68	71	70	279	-9
T4	Ricky Barnes	68	70	67	74	279	-9
T4	Ryan Palmer	68	70	72	69	279	-9
T9	Branden Grace	72	72	69	67	280	-8
T9	Harold Varner III	69	72	70	69	280	-8
T9	Jon Curran	70	68	71	71	280	-8
T9	Tom Hoge	76	68	71	65	280	-8
T13	Brendan Steele	64	70	72	75	281	-7
T13	Chris Kirk	71	71	69	70	281	-7
T13	Daniel Summerhays	72	70	71	68	281	-7
T13	David Hearn	73	71	67	70	281	-7
T13	J.B. Holmes	72	70	71	68	281	-7
T13	Luke Donald	69	70	68	74	281	-7
T13	Peter Malnati	67	71	76	67	281	-7
T13	Scott Stallings	74	70	70	67	281	-7

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 78 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Dgrade

Rank correlation: +0.246
Top-20 hit rate: 55%
Top-10 avg model rank: 26.8

Grade is this event’s percentile (27th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

Player	Model	Finish
Matt Kuchar	1st	42nd
Zach Johnson	2nd	29th
Charley Hoffman	3rd	1st
Ryan Palmer	4th	4th
Brandt Snedeker	5th	25th
Brendan Steele	6th	13th
Patrick Reed	7th	2nd
Billy Horschel	8th	4th
Francesco Molinari	9th	42nd
J.B. Holmes	10th	13th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

Player	Model	Finish
Martin Piller	72nd	4th(−68)
Freddie Jacobson	20th	80th(+60)
Chad Collins	61st	3rd(−58)
Scott Stallings	70th	13th(−57)
Peter Malnati	64th	13th(−51)
George McNeill	22nd	72nd(+50)
Harold Varner III	58th	9th(−49)
Jerry Kelly	17th	65th(+48)
John Huh	26th	72nd(+46)
Ricky Barnes	48th	4th(−44)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

This event in the model

OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.

This week's model Probabilities and the track record How the model works

The venue

This event was played at TPC San Antonio - The Oaks Course in San Antonio, Texas, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the Valero Texas Open in 2015-2016?

Charley Hoffman won the 2015-2016 Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio - The Oaks Course, finishing 12 under par.

Where was the 2015-2016 Valero Texas Open played?

The 2015-2016 Valero Texas Open was played at TPC San Antonio - The Oaks Course, starting 21 April 2016.

What was the winning score at the 2015-2016 Valero Texas Open?

The winning score was 12 under par (276 strokes), posted by Charley Hoffman.

How many players were in the Valero Texas Open field?

145 players started the 2015-2016 Valero Texas Open. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.