OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2024

The Sentry

2024-01-04 · Plantation Course at Kapalua

Winner
Chris Kirk
Winning score
-29
Field
59
Field strength
+0.386 SG

The 2024 The Sentry was played at Plantation Course at Kapalua, starting 4 January 2024. Chris Kirk won at 29 under par (263), 1 stroke ahead of Sahith Theegala. The winning card was 67, 65, 66 and 65, and the win paid $3,600,000. Sahith Theegala finished second, and Jordan Spieth was third. 59 players started the event. The field averaged +0.386 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 98% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 59. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 59 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Dgrade
Rank correlation
+0.261
Top-20 hit rate
55%
Top-10 avg model rank
17.7

Grade is this event’s percentile (30th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Scottie Scheffler1st5th
Patrick Cantlay2nd12th
Collin Morikawa3rd5th
Xander Schauffele4th10th
Viktor Hovland5th22nd
Max Homa6th14th
Tom Kim7th45th
Tommy Fleetwood8th47th
Tyrrell Hatton9th14th
Matt Fitzpatrick10th14th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Russell Henley11th52nd(+41)
Tommy Fleetwood8th47th(+39)
Tom Kim7th45th(+38)
Hideki Matsuyama20th58th(+38)
Rickie Fowler19th56th(+37)
Erik van Rooyen57th22nd(−35)
Nico Echavarria59th25th(−34)
Ludvig Åberg14th47th(+33)
Patrick Rodgers46th14th(−32)
Sahith Theegala32nd2nd(−30)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

This event in the model

OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.

This week's modelProbabilities and the track recordHow the model works

The venue

This event was played at Plantation Course at Kapalua in Kapalua, Maui, Hawaii, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the The Sentry in 2024?

Chris Kirk won the 2024 The Sentry at Plantation Course at Kapalua, finishing 29 under par.

Where was the 2024 The Sentry played?

The 2024 The Sentry was played at Plantation Course at Kapalua, starting 4 January 2024.

What was the winning score at the 2024 The Sentry?

The winning score was 29 under par (263 strokes), posted by Chris Kirk.

How many players were in the The Sentry field?

59 players started the 2024 The Sentry. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.