OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2022-2023

Sentry Tournament of Champions

2023-01-05 · Plantation Course at Kapalua

Winner
Jon Rahm
Winning score
-27
Field
39
Field strength
+0.719 SG

The 2022-2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions was played at Plantation Course at Kapalua, starting 5 January 2023. Jon Rahm won at 27 under par (265), 2 strokes ahead of Collin Morikawa. The winning card was 64, 71, 67 and 63, and the win paid $2,700,000. Collin Morikawa finished second, and Max Homa and Tom Hoge tied for third. 39 players started the event. The field averaged +0.719 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 95% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 39. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 38 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Agrade
Rank correlation
+0.521
Top-19 hit rate
79%
Top-10 avg model rank
13.8

Grade is this event’s percentile (96th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Patrick Cantlay1st16th
Jon Rahm2nd1st
Justin Thomas3rd25th
Scottie Scheffler4th7th
Tony Finau5th7th
Sungjae Im6th13th
Viktor Hovland7th18th
Will Zalatoris8th11th
Collin Morikawa9th2nd
Matt Fitzpatrick10th7th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
J.J. Spaun31st5th(−26)
Luke List34th11th(−23)
Justin Thomas3rd25th(+22)
Tom Hoge24th3rd(−21)
Sam Burns12th32nd(+20)
K.H. Lee26th7th(−19)
Patrick Cantlay1st16th(+15)
Keegan Bradley21st34th(+13)
Sepp Straka33rd21st(−12)
Viktor Hovland7th18th(+11)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

This event in the model

OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.

This week's modelProbabilities and the track recordHow the model works

The venue

This event was played at Plantation Course at Kapalua in Kapalua, Maui, Hawaii, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the Sentry Tournament of Champions in 2022-2023?

Jon Rahm won the 2022-2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions at Plantation Course at Kapalua, finishing 27 under par.

Where was the 2022-2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions played?

The 2022-2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions was played at Plantation Course at Kapalua, starting 5 January 2023.

What was the winning score at the 2022-2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions?

The winning score was 27 under par (265 strokes), posted by Jon Rahm.

How many players were in the Sentry Tournament of Champions field?

39 players started the 2022-2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.