OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2019-2020

THE NORTHERN TRUST

2020-08-20 · TPC Boston

Winner
Dustin Johnson
Winning score
-30
Field
123
Field strength
+0.417 SG

The 2019-2020 THE NORTHERN TRUST was played at TPC Boston, starting 20 August 2020. Dustin Johnson won at 30 under par (254), 11 strokes ahead of Harris English. The winning card was 67, 60, 64 and 63, and the win paid $1,710,000. Harris English finished second, and Daniel Berger was third. 123 players started the event. The field averaged +0.417 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 98% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 123. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 70 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Fgrade
Rank correlation
+0.149
Top-20 hit rate
35%
Top-10 avg model rank
19.3

Grade is this event’s percentile (8th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Rory McIlroy1st65th
Justin Thomas2nd49th
Jon Rahm3rd6th
Adam Scott4th58th
Hideki Matsuyama5th29th
Webb Simpson6th6th
Xander Schauffele7th25th
Patrick Reed8th49th
Rickie Fowler9th49th
Daniel Berger10th3rd

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Rory McIlroy1st65th(+64)
Harry Higgs68th11th(−57)
Robby Shelton69th13th(−56)
Adam Scott4th58th(+54)
Justin Thomas2nd49th(+47)
Danny Lee64th18th(−46)
Charley Hoffman58th13th(−45)
Tiger Woods15th58th(+43)
Patrick Reed8th49th(+41)
Rickie Fowler9th49th(+40)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

This event in the model

OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.

This week's modelProbabilities and the track recordHow the model works

The venue

This event was played at TPC Boston in Norton, Massachusetts, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the THE NORTHERN TRUST in 2019-2020?

Dustin Johnson won the 2019-2020 THE NORTHERN TRUST at TPC Boston, finishing 30 under par.

Where was the 2019-2020 THE NORTHERN TRUST played?

The 2019-2020 THE NORTHERN TRUST was played at TPC Boston, starting 20 August 2020.

What was the winning score at the 2019-2020 THE NORTHERN TRUST?

The winning score was 30 under par (254 strokes), posted by Dustin Johnson.

How many players were in the THE NORTHERN TRUST field?

123 players started the 2019-2020 THE NORTHERN TRUST. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.