OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2013-2014

HP Byron Nelson Championship

2014-05-15 · TPC Four Seasons Resort

Winner
Brendon Todd
Winning score
-14
Field
147
Field strength
+0.059 SG

The 2013-2014 HP Byron Nelson Championship was played at TPC Four Seasons Resort, starting 15 May 2014. Brendon Todd won at 14 under par (266), 2 strokes ahead of Mike Weir. The winning card was 68, 64, 68 and 66, and the win paid $1,242,000. Mike Weir finished second, and Charles Howell III and Marc Leishman tied for third. 147 players started the event. The field averaged +0.059 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 73% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 147. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 84 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Bgrade
Rank correlation
+0.464
Top-20 hit rate
50%
Top-10 avg model rank
24.1

Grade is this event’s percentile (88th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Charl Schwartzel1st11th
Keegan Bradley2nd29th
Matt Kuchar3rd7th
Jordan Spieth4th37th
Graham DeLaet5th7th
Jason Dufner6th48th
Jimmy Walker7th37th
Ryan Palmer8th22nd
Dustin Johnson9th7th
Gary Woodland10th7th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Mike Weir77th2nd(−75)
Charlie Beljan65th11th(−54)
Tyrone Van Aswegen69th16th(−53)
Tim Herron75th22nd(−53)
James Hahn53rd5th(−48)
Ryo Ishikawa29th75th(+46)
Scott Gardiner81st37th(−44)
Billy Hurley III59th16th(−43)
Jason Dufner6th48th(+42)
Scottie Scheffler62nd22nd(−40)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

This event in the model

OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.

This week's modelProbabilities and the track recordHow the model works

The venue

This event was played at TPC Four Seasons Resort in Irving, Texas, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the HP Byron Nelson Championship in 2013-2014?

Brendon Todd won the 2013-2014 HP Byron Nelson Championship at TPC Four Seasons Resort, finishing 14 under par.

Where was the 2013-2014 HP Byron Nelson Championship played?

The 2013-2014 HP Byron Nelson Championship was played at TPC Four Seasons Resort, starting 15 May 2014.

What was the winning score at the 2013-2014 HP Byron Nelson Championship?

The winning score was 14 under par (266 strokes), posted by Brendon Todd.

How many players were in the HP Byron Nelson Championship field?

147 players started the 2013-2014 HP Byron Nelson Championship. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.