OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2018-2019

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

2019-02-07 · Pebble Beach Golf Links

Winner
Phil Mickelson
Winning score
-19
Field
151
Field strength
+0.01 SG

The 2018-2019 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am was played at Pebble Beach Golf Links, starting 7 February 2019. Phil Mickelson won at 19 under par (268), 3 strokes ahead of Paul Casey. The winning card was 65, 68, 70 and 65, and the win paid $1,368,000. Paul Casey finished second, and Scott Stallings was third. 151 players started the event. The field averaged +0.01 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 78% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 151. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 70 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Fgrade
Rank correlation
+0.174
Top-20 hit rate
30%
Top-10 avg model rank
20.6

Grade is this event’s percentile (12th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Dustin Johnson1st45th
Paul Casey2nd2nd
Jordan Spieth3rd45th
Jason Day4th4th
Tommy Fleetwood5th45th
Tony Finau6th38th
Patrick Reed7th22nd
Matt Kuchar8th22nd
Phil Mickelson9th1st
Chez Reavie10th38th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Max Homa66th10th(−56)
Adam Scott12th61st(+49)
Roberto Díaz67th18th(−49)
Dustin Johnson1st45th(+44)
Matt Every58th14th(−44)
Austin Cook18th61st(+43)
Jordan Spieth3rd45th(+42)
Steve Stricker19th61st(+42)
Charley Hoffman20th61st(+41)
Brady Schnell69th28th(−41)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

This event in the model

OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.

This week's modelProbabilities and the track recordHow the model works

The venue

This event was played at Pebble Beach Golf Links in Pebble Beach, California, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in 2018-2019?

Phil Mickelson won the 2018-2019 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Pebble Beach Golf Links, finishing 19 under par.

Where was the 2018-2019 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am played?

The 2018-2019 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am was played at Pebble Beach Golf Links, starting 7 February 2019.

What was the winning score at the 2018-2019 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am?

The winning score was 19 under par (268 strokes), posted by Phil Mickelson.

How many players were in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am field?

151 players started the 2018-2019 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.