OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2013

Wells Fargo Championship

2013-05-02 · Quail Hollow Club

Winner
Derek Ernst
Winning score
-8
Field
147
Field strength
-0.016 SG

The 2013 Wells Fargo Championship was played at Quail Hollow Club, starting 2 May 2013. Derek Ernst won at 8 under par (280). The winning card was 67, 71, 72 and 70, and the win paid $1,206,000. David Lynn finished second, and Phil Mickelson was third. 147 players started the event. The field averaged -0.016 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 90% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 147. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 81 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Fgrade
Rank correlation
+0.159
Top-20 hit rate
45%
Top-10 avg model rank
28.7

Grade is this event’s percentile (9th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Rory McIlroy1st10th
Lee Westwood2nd4th
Webb Simpson3rd32nd
Rickie Fowler4th73rd
Sergio Garcia5th16th
Phil Mickelson6th3rd
Robert Garrigus7th27th
Bo Van Pelt8th6th
Nick Watney9th10th
Brendon de Jonge10th43rd

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Derek Ernst74th1st(−73)
Rickie Fowler4th73rd(+69)
Robert Karlsson66th4th(−62)
Luke List77th16th(−61)
Scott Gardiner80th22nd(−58)
Kevin Stadler16th73rd(+57)
Hunter Mahan19th73rd(+54)
Justin Hicks31st83rd(+52)
D.H. Lee67th16th(−51)
Ross Fisher59th10th(−49)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

This event in the model

OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.

This week's modelProbabilities and the track recordHow the model works

The venue

This event was played at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the Wells Fargo Championship in 2013?

Derek Ernst won the 2013 Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club, finishing 8 under par.

Where was the 2013 Wells Fargo Championship played?

The 2013 Wells Fargo Championship was played at Quail Hollow Club, starting 2 May 2013.

What was the winning score at the 2013 Wells Fargo Championship?

The winning score was 8 under par (280 strokes), posted by Derek Ernst.

How many players were in the Wells Fargo Championship field?

147 players started the 2013 Wells Fargo Championship. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.