Tournaments / 2016-2017

Waste Management Phoenix Open

2017-02-02 · TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)

Winner: Hideki Matsuyama
Winning score: -17
Field: 131
Field strength: +0.146 SG

The 2016-2017 Waste Management Phoenix Open was played at TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course), starting 2 February 2017. Hideki Matsuyama won at 17 under par (267). The winning card was 65, 68, 68 and 66, and the win paid $1,206,000. Webb Simpson finished second, and Louis Oosthuizen was third. 131 players started the event. The field averaged +0.146 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 91% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 131. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.


P1	Hideki Matsuyama	65	68	68	66	267	-17
P2	Webb Simpson	67	71	65	64	267	-17
3	Louis Oosthuizen	68	67	68	65	268	-16
T4	J.J. Spaun	71	64	67	67	269	-15
T4	Rickie Fowler	67	68	69	65	269	-15
6	Byeong Hun An	66	66	65	73	270	-14
T7	Daniel Berger	71	66	66	68	271	-13
T7	Martin Laird	67	66	65	73	271	-13
T9	Graham DeLaet	67	69	65	71	272	-12
T9	Jordan Spieth	70	68	67	67	272	-12
T9	Matt Kuchar	64	69	69	70	272	-12
T12	Adam Hadwin	71	66	70	66	273	-11
T12	John Peterson	66	72	63	72	273	-11
T12	Sung Kang	68	65	74	66	273	-11
T12	Zach Johnson	70	66	70	67	273	-11
T16	Brendan Steele	65	67	70	72	274	-10
T16	Brian Stuard	71	67	68	68	274	-10
T16	Daniel Summerhays	71	65	71	67	274	-10
T16	Jon Rahm	70	69	65	70	274	-10
T16	Kevin Na	68	70	68	68	274	-10

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 75 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Cgrade

Rank correlation: +0.382
Top-20 hit rate: 65%
Top-10 avg model rank: 19.7

Grade is this event’s percentile (68th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

Player	Model	Finish
Hideki Matsuyama	1st	1st
Jordan Spieth	2nd	9th
Phil Mickelson	3rd	16th
Rickie Fowler	4th	4th
Ryan Moore	5th	61st
Matt Kuchar	6th	9th
Brooks Koepka	7th	42nd
Patrick Reed	8th	68th
Jon Rahm	9th	16th
Zach Johnson	10th	12th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

Player	Model	Finish
Patrick Reed	8th	68th(+60)
Ryan Moore	5th	61st(+56)
Kevin Chappell	19th	75th(+56)
J.J. Spaun	60th	4th(−56)
John Peterson	61st	12th(−49)
Emiliano Grillo	15th	63rd(+48)
Scott Piercy	27th	73rd(+46)
Brian Stuard	57th	16th(−41)
Troy Merritt	65th	24th(−41)
Sung Kang	52nd	12th(−40)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

This event in the model

OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.

This week's model Probabilities and the track record How the model works

The venue

This event was played at TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) in Scottsdale, Arizona, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the Waste Management Phoenix Open in 2016-2017?

Hideki Matsuyama won the 2016-2017 Waste Management Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course), finishing 17 under par.

Where was the 2016-2017 Waste Management Phoenix Open played?

The 2016-2017 Waste Management Phoenix Open was played at TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course), starting 2 February 2017.

What was the winning score at the 2016-2017 Waste Management Phoenix Open?

The winning score was 17 under par (267 strokes), posted by Hideki Matsuyama.

How many players were in the Waste Management Phoenix Open field?

131 players started the 2016-2017 Waste Management Phoenix Open. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.