OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2018-2019

Sentry Tournament of Champions

2019-01-03 · Plantation Course at Kapalua

Winner
Xander Schauffele
Winning score
-23
Field
34
Field strength
+0.555 SG

The 2018-2019 Sentry Tournament of Champions was played at Plantation Course at Kapalua, starting 3 January 2019. Xander Schauffele won at 23 under par (269), 1 stroke ahead of Gary Woodland. The winning card was 72, 67, 68 and 62, and the win paid $1,300,000. Gary Woodland finished second, and Justin Thomas was third. 34 players started the event. The field averaged +0.555 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 34. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 33 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Bgrade
Rank correlation
+0.441
Top-16 hit rate
63%
Top-10 avg model rank
10.3

Grade is this event’s percentile (83rd) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Dustin Johnson1st4th
Justin Thomas2nd3rd
Brooks Koepka3rd24th
Webb Simpson4th8th
Jon Rahm5th8th
Jason Day6th13th
Rory McIlroy7th4th
Francesco Molinari8th27th
Paul Casey9th16th
Bryson DeChambeau10th7th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Patton Kizzire31st8th(−23)
Brooks Koepka3rd24th(+21)
Francesco Molinari8th27th(+19)
Xander Schauffele17th1st(−16)
Kevin Tway26th11th(−15)
Patrick Reed11th25th(+14)
Troy Merritt30th16th(−14)
Keegan Bradley15th27th(+12)
Gary Woodland12th2nd(−10)
Marc Leishman14th4th(−10)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

This event in the model

OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.

This week's modelProbabilities and the track recordHow the model works

The venue

This event was played at Plantation Course at Kapalua in Kapalua, Maui, Hawaii, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the Sentry Tournament of Champions in 2018-2019?

Xander Schauffele won the 2018-2019 Sentry Tournament of Champions at Plantation Course at Kapalua, finishing 23 under par.

Where was the 2018-2019 Sentry Tournament of Champions played?

The 2018-2019 Sentry Tournament of Champions was played at Plantation Course at Kapalua, starting 3 January 2019.

What was the winning score at the 2018-2019 Sentry Tournament of Champions?

The winning score was 23 under par (269 strokes), posted by Xander Schauffele.

How many players were in the Sentry Tournament of Champions field?

34 players started the 2018-2019 Sentry Tournament of Champions. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.