OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2016-2017

Quicken Loans National

2017-06-29 · TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm

Winner
Kyle Stanley
Winning score
-7
Field
120
Field strength
+0.068 SG

The 2016-2017 Quicken Loans National was played at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm, starting 29 June 2017. Kyle Stanley won at 7 under par (273). The winning card was 70, 70, 67 and 66, and the win paid $1,278,000. Charles Howell III finished second, and Martin Laird and Rickie Fowler tied for third. 120 players started the event. The field averaged +0.068 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 94% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 120. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 74 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Dgrade
Rank correlation
+0.268
Top-20 hit rate
50%
Top-10 avg model rank
17.9

Grade is this event’s percentile (32nd) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Rickie Fowler1st3rd
Marc Leishman2nd5th
Russell Henley3rd46th
Patrick Reed4th17th
Bill Haas5th13th
Lucas Glover6th43rd
Kyle Stanley7th1st
J.B. Holmes8th68th
Kevin Na9th22nd
Tony Finau10th29th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Curtis Luck72nd5th(−67)
J.B. Holmes8th68th(+60)
Spencer Levin60th5th(−55)
Jason Gore68th13th(−55)
Johnson Wagner56th5th(−51)
Geoff Ogilvy63rd13th(−50)
David Hearn24th73rd(+49)
Russell Henley3rd46th(+43)
Ollie Schniederjans23rd63rd(+40)
Andrew Loupe74th35th(−39)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

This event in the model

OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.

This week's modelProbabilities and the track recordHow the model works

The venue

This event was played at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm in Potomac, Maryland, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the Quicken Loans National in 2016-2017?

Kyle Stanley won the 2016-2017 Quicken Loans National at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm, finishing 7 under par.

Where was the 2016-2017 Quicken Loans National played?

The 2016-2017 Quicken Loans National was played at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm, starting 29 June 2017.

What was the winning score at the 2016-2017 Quicken Loans National?

The winning score was 7 under par (273 strokes), posted by Kyle Stanley.

How many players were in the Quicken Loans National field?

120 players started the 2016-2017 Quicken Loans National. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.