OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2021-2022

PGA Championship

2022-05-19 · Southern Hills CC

Winner
Justin Thomas
Winning score
-5
Field
156
Field strength
+0.527 SG

The 2021-2022 PGA Championship was played at Southern Hills CC, starting 19 May 2022. Justin Thomas won at 5 under par (275). The winning card was 67, 67, 74 and 67, and the win paid $2,700,000. Will Zalatoris finished second, and Cameron Young and Mito Pereira tied for third. 156 players started the event. The field averaged +0.527 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 60% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 156. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 78 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Cgrade
Rank correlation
+0.329
Top-20 hit rate
40%
Top-10 avg model rank
20.0

Grade is this event’s percentile (53rd) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Jon Rahm1st48th
Justin Thomas2nd1st
Viktor Hovland3rd41st
Rory McIlroy4th8th
Cameron Smith5th13th
Xander Schauffele6th13th
Collin Morikawa7th55th
Hideki Matsuyama8th60th
Louis Oosthuizen9th60th
Will Zalatoris10th2nd

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Lucas Herbert70th13th(−57)
Hideki Matsuyama8th60th(+52)
Brendan Steele61st9th(−52)
Louis Oosthuizen9th60th(+51)
Davis Riley63rd13th(−50)
Collin Morikawa7th55th(+48)
Billy Horschel20th68th(+48)
Jon Rahm1st48th(+47)
Russell Henley13th60th(+47)
Rickie Fowler67th23rd(−44)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

This event in the model

OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.

This week's modelProbabilities and the track recordHow the model works

The venue

This event was played at Southern Hills CC in Tulsa, Oklahoma, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the PGA Championship in 2021-2022?

Justin Thomas won the 2021-2022 PGA Championship at Southern Hills CC, finishing 5 under par.

Where was the 2021-2022 PGA Championship played?

The 2021-2022 PGA Championship was played at Southern Hills CC, starting 19 May 2022.

What was the winning score at the 2021-2022 PGA Championship?

The winning score was 5 under par (275 strokes), posted by Justin Thomas.

How many players were in the PGA Championship field?

156 players started the 2021-2022 PGA Championship. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.