OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2018-2019

PGA Championship

2019-05-16 · Bethpage State Park BK Course

Winner
Brooks Koepka
Winning score
-8
Field
156
Field strength
+0.446 SG

The 2018-2019 PGA Championship was played at Bethpage State Park BK Course, starting 16 May 2019. Brooks Koepka won at 8 under par (272), 2 strokes ahead of Dustin Johnson. The winning card was 63, 65, 70 and 74, and the win paid $1,980,000. Dustin Johnson finished second, and Jordan Spieth, Matt Wallace and Patrick Cantlay tied for third. 156 players started the event. The field averaged +0.446 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 63% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 156. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 82 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Cgrade
Rank correlation
+0.310
Top-20 hit rate
45%
Top-10 avg model rank
21.2

Grade is this event’s percentile (45th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Dustin Johnson1st2nd
Justin Rose2nd29th
Rickie Fowler3rd36th
Rory McIlroy4th8th
Jason Day5th23rd
Patrick Cantlay6th3rd
Brooks Koepka7th1st
Tommy Fleetwood8th48th
Tony Finau9th64th
Paul Casey10th29th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Lucas Bjerregaard80th16th(−64)
Mike Lorenzo-Vera78th16th(−62)
Jazz Janewattananond75th14th(−61)
Tony Finau9th64th(+55)
Matt Wallace56th3rd(−53)
Phil Mickelson20th71st(+51)
Shane Lowry59th8th(−51)
Rafa Cabrera Bello22nd71st(+49)
Jimmy Walker70th23rd(−47)
Sung Kang52nd7th(−45)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

This event in the model

OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.

This week's modelProbabilities and the track recordHow the model works

The venue

This event was played at Bethpage State Park BK Course in Farmingdale, New York, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the PGA Championship in 2018-2019?

Brooks Koepka won the 2018-2019 PGA Championship at Bethpage State Park BK Course, finishing 8 under par.

Where was the 2018-2019 PGA Championship played?

The 2018-2019 PGA Championship was played at Bethpage State Park BK Course, starting 16 May 2019.

What was the winning score at the 2018-2019 PGA Championship?

The winning score was 8 under par (272 strokes), posted by Brooks Koepka.

How many players were in the PGA Championship field?

156 players started the 2018-2019 PGA Championship. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.