OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2015-2016

John Deere Classic

2016-08-11 · TPC Deere Run

Winner
Ryan Moore
Winning score
-22
Field
137
Field strength
-0.203 SG

The 2015-2016 John Deere Classic was played at TPC Deere Run, starting 11 August 2016. Ryan Moore won at 22 under par (262), 2 strokes ahead of Ben Martin. The winning card was 65, 65, 65 and 67, and the win paid $864,000. Ben Martin finished second, and Morgan Hoffmann and Whee Kim tied for third. 137 players started the event. The field averaged -0.203 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 72% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 137. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 72 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Dgrade
Rank correlation
+0.197
Top-20 hit rate
35%
Top-10 avg model rank
22.4

Grade is this event’s percentile (16th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Zach Johnson1st34th
Steve Stricker2nd52nd
Kevin Na3rd8th
Ryan Moore4th1st
Keegan Bradley5th22nd
Adam Hadwin6th8th
Jason Bohn7th56th
Hudson Swafford8th47th
Jon Rahm9th14th
Billy Hurley III10th34th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Steve Marino61st8th(−53)
Kelly Kraft57th5th(−52)
Miguel Angel Carballo68th16th(−52)
Steve Stricker2nd52nd(+50)
Jason Bohn7th56th(+49)
Charlie Danielson70th22nd(−48)
Andrew Landry53rd8th(−45)
Whee Kim44th3rd(−41)
John Huh24th64th(+40)
Andrew Loupe56th16th(−40)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

This event in the model

OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.

This week's modelProbabilities and the track recordHow the model works

The venue

This event was played at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the John Deere Classic in 2015-2016?

Ryan Moore won the 2015-2016 John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run, finishing 22 under par.

Where was the 2015-2016 John Deere Classic played?

The 2015-2016 John Deere Classic was played at TPC Deere Run, starting 11 August 2016.

What was the winning score at the 2015-2016 John Deere Classic?

The winning score was 22 under par (262 strokes), posted by Ryan Moore.

How many players were in the John Deere Classic field?

137 players started the 2015-2016 John Deere Classic. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.