Tournaments / 2015-2016

FedEx St. Jude Classic

2016-06-09 · TPC Southwind

Winner: Daniel Berger
Winning score: -13
Field: 144
Field strength: -0.109 SG

The 2015-2016 FedEx St. Jude Classic was played at TPC Southwind, starting 9 June 2016. Daniel Berger won at 13 under par (267), 3 strokes ahead of Brooks Koepka. The winning card was 67, 64, 69 and 67, and the win paid $1,116,000. Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson and Steve Stricker tied for second. 144 players started the event. The field averaged -0.109 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 75% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 144. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.


1	Daniel Berger	67	64	69	67	267	-13
T2	Brooks Koepka	70	65	69	66	270	-10
T2	Phil Mickelson	70	65	68	67	270	-10
T2	Steve Stricker	66	71	66	67	270	-10
5	Dustin Johnson	66	69	73	63	271	-9
6	Brian Gay	66	70	70	66	272	-8
T7	Russell Henley	68	68	70	67	273	-7
T7	S.Y. Noh	65	72	67	69	273	-7
T9	Brett Stegmaier	67	69	69	69	274	-6
T9	Ken Duke	70	66	70	68	274	-6
T9	Shawn Stefani	65	71	73	65	274	-6
T12	Boo Weekley	70	69	66	70	275	-5
T12	Freddie Jacobson	72	66	70	67	275	-5
T12	Luke Guthrie	68	72	69	66	275	-5
T12	Retief Goosen	67	70	71	67	275	-5
T16	Harold Varner III	71	69	69	67	276	-4
T16	Michael Kim	69	70	69	68	276	-4
T18	Abraham Ancer	71	68	69	69	277	-3
T18	Bronson Burgoon	72	66	71	68	277	-3
T18	Chad Collins	72	66	74	65	277	-3

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 71 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Dgrade

Rank correlation: +0.281
Top-20 hit rate: 45%
Top-10 avg model rank: 22.2

Grade is this event’s percentile (38th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

Player	Model	Finish
Ryan Palmer	1st	68th
Brooks Koepka	2nd	2nd
Dustin Johnson	3rd	5th
Phil Mickelson	4th	2nd
Harris English	5th	26th
Francesco Molinari	6th	34th
Daniel Berger	7th	1st
Steve Stricker	8th	2nd
Colt Knost	9th	18th
David Hearn	10th	41st

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

Player	Model	Finish
Ryan Palmer	1st	68th(+67)
Brian Gay	67th	6th(−61)
Abraham Ancer	69th	18th(−51)
Ken Duke	59th	9th(−50)
D.A. Points	61st	18th(−43)
Luke Guthrie	53rd	12th(−41)
Stewart Cink	25th	65th(+40)
Brett Stegmaier	48th	9th(−39)
Wes Roach	56th	18th(−38)
Troy Merritt	31st	68th(+37)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

This event in the model

OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.

This week's model Probabilities and the track record How the model works

The venue

This event was played at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the FedEx St. Jude Classic in 2015-2016?

Daniel Berger won the 2015-2016 FedEx St. Jude Classic at TPC Southwind, finishing 13 under par.

Where was the 2015-2016 FedEx St. Jude Classic played?

The 2015-2016 FedEx St. Jude Classic was played at TPC Southwind, starting 9 June 2016.

What was the winning score at the 2015-2016 FedEx St. Jude Classic?

The winning score was 13 under par (267 strokes), posted by Daniel Berger.

How many players were in the FedEx St. Jude Classic field?

144 players started the 2015-2016 FedEx St. Jude Classic. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.