OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2018-2019

BMW Championship

2019-08-15 · Medinah CC (No. 3)

Winner
Justin Thomas
Winning score
-25
Field
70
Field strength
+0.714 SG

The 2018-2019 BMW Championship was played at Medinah CC (No. 3), starting 15 August 2019. Justin Thomas won at 25 under par (263), 3 strokes ahead of Patrick Cantlay. The winning card was 65, 69, 61 and 68, and the win paid $1,665,000. Patrick Cantlay finished second, and Hideki Matsuyama was third. 70 players started the event. The field averaged +0.714 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 96% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 70. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 69 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Cgrade
Rank correlation
+0.368
Top-20 hit rate
50%
Top-10 avg model rank
23.7

Grade is this event’s percentile (64th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Dustin Johnson1st57th
Justin Rose2nd52nd
Rory McIlroy3rd19th
Justin Thomas4th1st
Patrick Cantlay5th2nd
Brooks Koepka6th24th
Webb Simpson7th24th
Jon Rahm8th5th
Rickie Fowler9th11th
Tommy Fleetwood10th11th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Dustin Johnson1st57th(+56)
Corey Conners60th7th(−53)
Kevin Tway64th11th(−53)
Justin Rose2nd52nd(+50)
Kevin Kisner47th9th(−38)
Francesco Molinari24th61st(+37)
J.T. Poston52nd16th(−36)
Jason Day17th52nd(+35)
Brandt Snedeker40th5th(−35)
Si Woo Kim62nd28th(−34)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

This event in the model

OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.

This week's modelProbabilities and the track recordHow the model works

The venue

This event was played at Medinah CC (No. 3) in Chicago, Illinois, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the BMW Championship in 2018-2019?

Justin Thomas won the 2018-2019 BMW Championship at Medinah CC (No. 3), finishing 25 under par.

Where was the 2018-2019 BMW Championship played?

The 2018-2019 BMW Championship was played at Medinah CC (No. 3), starting 15 August 2019.

What was the winning score at the 2018-2019 BMW Championship?

The winning score was 25 under par (263 strokes), posted by Justin Thomas.

How many players were in the BMW Championship field?

70 players started the 2018-2019 BMW Championship. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.