OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2016-2017

BMW Championship

2017-09-14 · Conway Farms GC

Winner
Marc Leishman
Winning score
-23
Field
70
Field strength
+0.763 SG

The 2016-2017 BMW Championship was played at Conway Farms GC, starting 14 September 2017. Marc Leishman won at 23 under par (261), 5 strokes ahead of Justin Rose. The winning card was 62, 64, 68 and 67, and the win paid $1,575,000. Justin Rose and Rickie Fowler tied for second. 70 players started the event. The field averaged +0.763 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 99% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 70. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 69 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Cgrade
Rank correlation
+0.302
Top-20 hit rate
50%
Top-10 avg model rank
14.8

Grade is this event’s percentile (43rd) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Hideki Matsuyama1st47th
Rickie Fowler2nd2nd
Jordan Spieth3rd7th
Henrik Stenson4th51st
Rory McIlroy5th58th
Dustin Johnson6th33rd
Paul Casey7th33rd
Jason Day8th4th
Justin Thomas9th47th
Matt Kuchar10th5th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Anirban Lahiri67th9th(−58)
Cameron Smith69th12th(−57)
Rory McIlroy5th58th(+53)
Henrik Stenson4th51st(+47)
Hideki Matsuyama1st47th(+46)
Louis Oosthuizen17th63rd(+46)
Patrick Reed19th65th(+46)
Scott Brown63rd20th(−43)
Justin Thomas9th47th(+38)
Kevin Kisner29th67th(+38)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

This event in the model

OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.

This week's modelProbabilities and the track recordHow the model works

The venue

This event was played at Conway Farms GC in Lake Forest, Illinois, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the BMW Championship in 2016-2017?

Marc Leishman won the 2016-2017 BMW Championship at Conway Farms GC, finishing 23 under par.

Where was the 2016-2017 BMW Championship played?

The 2016-2017 BMW Championship was played at Conway Farms GC, starting 14 September 2017.

What was the winning score at the 2016-2017 BMW Championship?

The winning score was 23 under par (261 strokes), posted by Marc Leishman.

How many players were in the BMW Championship field?

70 players started the 2016-2017 BMW Championship. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.