OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2017-2018

AT&T Byron Nelson

2018-05-17 · Trinity Forest Golf Club

Winner
Aaron Wise
Winning score
-23
Field
152
Field strength
-0.076 SG

The 2017-2018 AT&T Byron Nelson was played at Trinity Forest Golf Club, starting 17 May 2018. Aaron Wise won at 23 under par (261), 3 strokes ahead of Marc Leishman. The winning card was 65, 63, 68 and 65, and the win paid $1,386,000. Marc Leishman finished second, and Branden Grace, J.J. Spaun and Keith Mitchell tied for third. 152 players started the event. The field averaged -0.076 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 72% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 152. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 74 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Agrade
Rank correlation
+0.505
Top-20 hit rate
60%
Top-10 avg model rank
14.6

Grade is this event’s percentile (95th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Jordan Spieth1st21st
Hideki Matsuyama2nd16th
Marc Leishman3rd2nd
Branden Grace4th3rd
Adam Scott5th9th
Charles Howell III6th9th
Kevin Na7th6th
Russell Knox8th16th
Rory Sabbatini9th13th
Jimmy Walker10th6th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Ethan Tracy74th13th(−61)
Derek Fathauer68th16th(−52)
Vaughn Taylor11th59th(+48)
Ryan Blaum50th6th(−44)
Martin Piller63rd21st(−42)
Ryan Armour19th59th(+40)
Tyler Duncan66th26th(−40)
Bronson Burgoon54th16th(−38)
Cody Gribble67th32nd(−35)
Matt Jones47th13th(−34)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

This event in the model

OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.

This week's modelProbabilities and the track recordHow the model works

The venue

This event was played at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas, Texas, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the AT&T Byron Nelson in 2017-2018?

Aaron Wise won the 2017-2018 AT&T Byron Nelson at Trinity Forest Golf Club, finishing 23 under par.

Where was the 2017-2018 AT&T Byron Nelson played?

The 2017-2018 AT&T Byron Nelson was played at Trinity Forest Golf Club, starting 17 May 2018.

What was the winning score at the 2017-2018 AT&T Byron Nelson?

The winning score was 23 under par (261 strokes), posted by Aaron Wise.

How many players were in the AT&T Byron Nelson field?

152 players started the 2017-2018 AT&T Byron Nelson. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.