Tournaments / 2026
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard
2026-03-05 · Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge
- Winner
- Akshay Bhatia
- Winning score
- -15
- Field
- 71
- Field strength
- +0.384 SG
The 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, starting 5 March 2026. Akshay Bhatia won at 15 under par (273). The winning card was 70, 66, 68 and 69, and the win paid $4,000,000. Daniel Berger finished second, and Cameron Young and Ludvig Åberg tied for third. 71 players started the event. The field averaged +0.384 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.
Final leaderboard
Top 20 of 71. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.
- Akshay Bhatia
- Pos
- P1
- R1
- 70
- R2
- 66
- R3
- 68
- R4
- 69
- Total
- 273
- Daniel Berger
- Pos
- P2
- R1
- 63
- R2
- 68
- R3
- 72
- R4
- 70
- Total
- 273
- Cameron Young
- Pos
- T3
- R1
- 67
- R2
- 73
- R3
- 67
- R4
- 69
- Total
- 276
- Ludvig Åberg
- Pos
- T3
- R1
- 66
- R2
- 71
- R3
- 72
- R4
- 67
- Total
- 276
- Collin Morikawa
- Pos
- 5
- R1
- 66
- R2
- 71
- R3
- 70
- R4
- 70
- Total
- 277
- Min Woo Lee
- Pos
- T6
- R1
- 69
- R2
- 71
- R3
- 68
- R4
- 70
- Total
- 278
- Russell Henley
- Pos
- T6
- R1
- 70
- R2
- 69
- R3
- 71
- R4
- 68
- Total
- 278
- Sahith Theegala
- Pos
- T6
- R1
- 70
- R2
- 67
- R3
- 75
- R4
- 66
- Total
- 278
- Harry Hall
- Pos
- T9
- R1
- 73
- R2
- 69
- R3
- 68
- R4
- 70
- Total
- 280
- Rickie Fowler
- Pos
- T9
- R1
- 69
- R2
- 69
- R3
- 72
- R4
- 70
- Total
- 280
- Adam Scott
- Pos
- T11
- R1
- 68
- R2
- 73
- R3
- 71
- R4
- 70
- Total
- 282
- Jordan Spieth
- Pos
- T11
- R1
- 72
- R2
- 71
- R3
- 68
- R4
- 71
- Total
- 282
- Billy Horschel
- Pos
- T13
- R1
- 69
- R2
- 74
- R3
- 72
- R4
- 68
- Total
- 283
- Maverick McNealy
- Pos
- T13
- R1
- 70
- R2
- 74
- R3
- 69
- R4
- 70
- Total
- 283
- Sepp Straka
- Pos
- T13
- R1
- 72
- R2
- 69
- R3
- 66
- R4
- 76
- Total
- 283
- Si Woo Kim
- Pos
- T13
- R1
- 71
- R2
- 71
- R3
- 71
- R4
- 70
- Total
- 283
- Viktor Hovland
- Pos
- T13
- R1
- 72
- R2
- 72
- R3
- 67
- R4
- 72
- Total
- 283
- Bud Cauley
- Pos
- T18
- R1
- 69
- R2
- 71
- R3
- 71
- R4
- 74
- Total
- 285
- Chris Gotterup
- Pos
- T18
- R1
- 69
- R2
- 71
- R3
- 69
- R4
- 76
- Total
- 285
- Jacob Bridgeman
- Pos
- T18
- R1
- 75
- R2
- 69
- R3
- 69
- R4
- 72
- Total
- 285
Model score
Backtest · reconstructedOur course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 49 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.
- Rank correlation
- +0.280
- Top-20 hit rate
- 60%
- Top-10 avg model rank
- 19.3
Grade is this event’s percentile (37th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.
Who the model liked
Its top 10, and where they finished.
| Player | Model | Finish |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 1st | 24th |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 2nd | 49th |
| Russell Henley | 3rd | 6th |
| Collin Morikawa | 4th | 5th |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 5th | 41st |
| Xander Schauffele | 6th | 24th |
| Si Woo Kim | 7th | 13th |
| Robert MacIntyre | 8th | 24th |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 9th | 41st |
| Viktor Hovland | 10th | 13th |
Where it was most wrong
Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.
| Player | Model | Finish |
|---|---|---|
| Tommy Fleetwood | 2nd | 49th(+47) |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 5th | 41st(+36) |
| Billy Horschel | 47th | 13th(−34) |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | 9th | 41st(+32) |
| Daniel Berger | 34th | 2nd(−32) |
| Sahith Theegala | 38th | 6th(−32) |
| Jhonattan Vegas | 49th | 18th(−31) |
| Min Woo Lee | 32nd | 6th(−26) |
| Scottie Scheffler | 1st | 24th(+23) |
| Bud Cauley | 41st | 18th(−23) |
One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.
This event in the model
OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.
This week's modelProbabilities and the track recordHow the model works
The venue
This event was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.
Common questions
Who won the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard in 2026?
Where was the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard played?
What was the winning score at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?
How many players were in the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard field?
Where these numbers come from
Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.