Tournaments / 2025
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard
2025-03-06 · Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge
- Winner
- Russell Henley
- Winning score
- -11
- Field
- 72
- Field strength
- +0.384 SG
The 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, starting 6 March 2025. Russell Henley won at 11 under par (277), 1 stroke ahead of Collin Morikawa. The winning card was 72, 68, 67 and 70, and the win paid $4,000,000. Collin Morikawa finished second, and Corey Conners was third. 72 players started the event. The field averaged +0.384 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 96% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.
Final leaderboard
Top 20 of 72. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.
- Russell Henley
- Pos
- 1
- R1
- 72
- R2
- 68
- R3
- 67
- R4
- 70
- Total
- 277
- Collin Morikawa
- Pos
- 2
- R1
- 71
- R2
- 68
- R3
- 67
- R4
- 72
- Total
- 278
- Corey Conners
- Pos
- 3
- R1
- 69
- R2
- 70
- R3
- 69
- R4
- 71
- Total
- 279
- Michael Kim
- Pos
- 4
- R1
- 75
- R2
- 69
- R3
- 67
- R4
- 69
- Total
- 280
- Keegan Bradley
- Pos
- T5
- R1
- 69
- R2
- 72
- R3
- 76
- R4
- 64
- Total
- 281
- Sepp Straka
- Pos
- T5
- R1
- 77
- R2
- 66
- R3
- 69
- R4
- 69
- Total
- 281
- Shane Lowry
- Pos
- 7
- R1
- 69
- R2
- 67
- R3
- 76
- R4
- 70
- Total
- 282
- Byeong Hun An
- Pos
- T8
- R1
- 76
- R2
- 69
- R3
- 70
- R4
- 68
- Total
- 283
- Jason Day
- Pos
- T8
- R1
- 76
- R2
- 64
- R3
- 69
- R4
- 74
- Total
- 283
- Justin Rose
- Pos
- T8
- R1
- 70
- R2
- 73
- R3
- 71
- R4
- 69
- Total
- 283
- Aaron Rai
- Pos
- T11
- R1
- 74
- R2
- 72
- R3
- 67
- R4
- 71
- Total
- 284
- Robert MacIntyre
- Pos
- T11
- R1
- 74
- R2
- 71
- R3
- 68
- R4
- 71
- Total
- 284
- Scottie Scheffler
- Pos
- T11
- R1
- 71
- R2
- 72
- R3
- 71
- R4
- 70
- Total
- 284
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Pos
- T11
- R1
- 75
- R2
- 72
- R3
- 69
- R4
- 68
- Total
- 284
- Daniel Berger
- Pos
- T15
- R1
- 78
- R2
- 69
- R3
- 68
- R4
- 70
- Total
- 285
- Jacob Bridgeman
- Pos
- T15
- R1
- 75
- R2
- 73
- R3
- 69
- R4
- 68
- Total
- 285
- Rory McIlroy
- Pos
- T15
- R1
- 70
- R2
- 70
- R3
- 73
- R4
- 72
- Total
- 285
- Denny McCarthy
- Pos
- 18
- R1
- 73
- R2
- 73
- R3
- 73
- R4
- 67
- Total
- 286
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Pos
- T19
- R1
- 69
- R2
- 75
- R3
- 70
- R4
- 73
- Total
- 287
- Si Woo Kim
- Pos
- T19
- R1
- 70
- R2
- 72
- R3
- 73
- R4
- 72
- Total
- 287
Model score
Backtest · reconstructedOur course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 51 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.
- Rank correlation
- +0.367
- Top-20 hit rate
- 60%
- Top-10 avg model rank
- 20.6
Grade is this event’s percentile (64th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.
Who the model liked
Its top 10, and where they finished.
| Player | Model | Finish |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 1st | 11th |
| Rory McIlroy | 2nd | 15th |
| Xander Schauffele | 3rd | 40th |
| Collin Morikawa | 4th | 2nd |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 5th | 11th |
| Ludvig Åberg | 6th | 22nd |
| Patrick Cantlay | 7th | 31st |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 8th | 22nd |
| Russell Henley | 9th | 1st |
| Justin Thomas | 10th | 36th |
Where it was most wrong
Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.
| Player | Model | Finish |
|---|---|---|
| Xander Schauffele | 3rd | 40th(+37) |
| Sam Burns | 14th | 48th(+34) |
| Byeong Hun An | 38th | 8th(−30) |
| Justin Rose | 35th | 8th(−27) |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 49th | 22nd(−27) |
| Justin Thomas | 10th | 36th(+26) |
| Chris Kirk | 47th | 22nd(−25) |
| Patrick Cantlay | 7th | 31st(+24) |
| Adam Scott | 12th | 36th(+24) |
| Michael Kim | 27th | 4th(−23) |
One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.
This event in the model
OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.
This week's modelProbabilities and the track recordHow the model works
The venue
This event was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.
Common questions
Who won the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard in 2025?
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What was the winning score at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?
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Where these numbers come from
Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.