OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2013

U.S. Open

2013-06-13 · Merion GC

Winner
Justin Rose
Winning score
+1
Field
156
Field strength
+0.424 SG

The 2013 U.S. Open was played at Merion GC, starting 13 June 2013. Justin Rose won at 1 over par (281), 2 strokes ahead of Jason Day. The winning card was 71, 69, 71 and 70, and the win paid $1,440,000. Jason Day and Phil Mickelson tied for second. 156 players started the event. The field averaged +0.424 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 55% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 156. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 73 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Agrade
Rank correlation
+0.483
Top-20 hit rate
55%
Top-10 avg model rank
14.0

Grade is this event’s percentile (91st) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Tiger Woods1st32nd
Rory McIlroy2nd41st
Justin Rose3rd1st
Steve Stricker4th8th
Luke Donald5th8th
Sergio Garcia6th45th
Matt Kuchar7th28th
Adam Scott8th45th
Brandt Snedeker9th17th
Lee Westwood10th15th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Hideki Matsuyama67th10th(−57)
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castaño59th10th(−49)
Mathew Goggin64th21st(−43)
Mike Weir71st28th(−43)
Edward Loar72nd32nd(−40)
Rory McIlroy2nd41st(+39)
Sergio Garcia6th45th(+39)
Dustin Johnson16th55th(+39)
Adam Scott8th45th(+37)
Michael Kim52nd17th(−35)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

This event in the model

OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.

This week's modelProbabilities and the track recordHow the model works

The venue

This event was played at Merion GC in Ardome, Pennsylvania, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the U.S. Open in 2013?

Justin Rose won the 2013 U.S. Open at Merion GC, finishing 1 over par.

Where was the 2013 U.S. Open played?

The 2013 U.S. Open was played at Merion GC, starting 13 June 2013.

What was the winning score at the 2013 U.S. Open?

The winning score was 1 over par (281 strokes), posted by Justin Rose.

How many players were in the U.S. Open field?

156 players started the 2013 U.S. Open. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.