OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2022-2023

The American Express

2023-01-19 · Pete Dye Stadium Course

Winner
Jon Rahm
Winning score
-27
Field
156
Field strength
+0.02 SG

The 2022-2023 The American Express was played at Pete Dye Stadium Course, starting 19 January 2023. Jon Rahm won at 27 under par (261), 1 stroke ahead of Davis Thompson. The winning card was 64, 64, 65 and 68, and the win paid $1,440,000. Davis Thompson finished second, and Chris Kirk and Xander Schauffele tied for third. 156 players started the event. The field averaged +0.02 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 89% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 156. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 69 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Cgrade
Rank correlation
+0.357
Top-20 hit rate
50%
Top-10 avg model rank
28.1

Grade is this event’s percentile (61st) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Patrick Cantlay1st26th
Scottie Scheffler2nd11th
Sungjae Im3rd18th
Will Zalatoris4th36th
Tony Finau5th16th
Jon Rahm6th1st
Xander Schauffele7th3rd
Sam Burns8th11th
Cameron Young9th26th
Tom Hoge10th32nd

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Matti Schmid66th6th(−60)
Garrick Higgo67th11th(−56)
Harrison Endycott64th22nd(−42)
Tano Goya68th26th(−42)
Davis Thompson43rd2nd(−41)
Harry Higgs59th18th(−41)
Denny McCarthy12th50th(+38)
Davis Riley27th65th(+38)
Robby Shelton44th6th(−38)
Danny Lee54th16th(−38)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

This event in the model

OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.

This week's modelProbabilities and the track recordHow the model works

The venue

This event was played at Pete Dye Stadium Course in La Quinta, California, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the The American Express in 2022-2023?

Jon Rahm won the 2022-2023 The American Express at Pete Dye Stadium Course, finishing 27 under par.

Where was the 2022-2023 The American Express played?

The 2022-2023 The American Express was played at Pete Dye Stadium Course, starting 19 January 2023.

What was the winning score at the 2022-2023 The American Express?

The winning score was 27 under par (261 strokes), posted by Jon Rahm.

How many players were in the The American Express field?

156 players started the 2022-2023 The American Express. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.