OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2024

John Deere Classic

2024-07-04 · TPC Deere Run

Winner
Davis Thompson
Winning score
-28
Field
152
Field strength
-0.103 SG

The 2024 John Deere Classic was played at TPC Deere Run, starting 4 July 2024. Davis Thompson won at 28 under par (256), 4 strokes ahead of C.T. Pan. The winning card was 63, 67, 62 and 64, and the win paid $1,440,000. C.T. Pan, Luke Clanton and Michael Thorbjornsen tied for second. 152 players started the event. The field averaged -0.103 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 80% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 152. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 77 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Agrade
Rank correlation
+0.491
Top-20 hit rate
45%
Top-10 avg model rank
23.2

Grade is this event’s percentile (92nd) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Sepp Straka1st61st
Denny McCarthy2nd7th
Lucas Glover3rd23rd
Jordan Spieth4th26th
Sungjae Im5th12th
Aaron Rai6th7th
J.T. Poston7th30th
Jason Day8th23rd
Keith Mitchell9th18th
Davis Thompson10th1st

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Sepp Straka1st61st(+60)
Lee Hodges19th77th(+58)
Michael Thorbjornsen58th2nd(−56)
Sami Valimaki60th12th(−48)
Beau Hossler14th61st(+47)
Justin Lower29th73rd(+44)
Hayden Springer49th7th(−42)
C.T. Pan38th2nd(−36)
Carson Young40th5th(−35)
Pierceson Coody63rd30th(−33)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

This event in the model

OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.

This week's modelProbabilities and the track recordHow the model works

The venue

This event was played at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the John Deere Classic in 2024?

Davis Thompson won the 2024 John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run, finishing 28 under par.

Where was the 2024 John Deere Classic played?

The 2024 John Deere Classic was played at TPC Deere Run, starting 4 July 2024.

What was the winning score at the 2024 John Deere Classic?

The winning score was 28 under par (256 strokes), posted by Davis Thompson.

How many players were in the John Deere Classic field?

152 players started the 2024 John Deere Classic. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.