OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2013

BMW Championship

2013-09-12 · Conway Farms GC

Winner
Zach Johnson
Winning score
-16
Field
71
Field strength
+0.668 SG

The 2013 BMW Championship was played at Conway Farms GC, starting 12 September 2013. Zach Johnson won at 16 under par (268), 2 strokes ahead of Nick Watney. The winning card was 64, 70, 69 and 65, and the win paid $1,440,000. Nick Watney finished second, and Jim Furyk was third. 71 players started the event. The field averaged +0.668 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 71. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 70 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Bgrade
Rank correlation
+0.413
Top-20 hit rate
50%
Top-10 avg model rank
19.6

Grade is this event’s percentile (77th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Tiger Woods1st11th
Steve Stricker2nd4th
Justin Rose3rd33rd
Matt Kuchar4th24th
Rory McIlroy5th59th
Jason Dufner6th54th
Jim Furyk7th3rd
Adam Scott8th28th
Luke Donald9th4th
Sergio Garcia10th18th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Rory McIlroy5th59th(+54)
Lee Westwood15th67th(+52)
Jason Dufner6th54th(+48)
Gary Woodland66th18th(−48)
Dustin Johnson18th62nd(+44)
Rory Sabbatini55th11th(−44)
Matt Jones50th8th(−42)
David Lynn59th23rd(−36)
John Merrick52nd18th(−34)
Graeme McDowell26th57th(+31)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

This event in the model

OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.

This week's modelProbabilities and the track recordHow the model works

The venue

This event was played at Conway Farms GC in Lake Forest, Illinois, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the BMW Championship in 2013?

Zach Johnson won the 2013 BMW Championship at Conway Farms GC, finishing 16 under par.

Where was the 2013 BMW Championship played?

The 2013 BMW Championship was played at Conway Farms GC, starting 12 September 2013.

What was the winning score at the 2013 BMW Championship?

The winning score was 16 under par (268 strokes), posted by Zach Johnson.

How many players were in the BMW Championship field?

71 players started the 2013 BMW Championship. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.