OTIS Golf

Tournaments / 2021-2022

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

2022-02-03 · Pebble Beach Golf Links

Winner
Tom Hoge
Winning score
-19
Field
152
Field strength
+0.001 SG

The 2021-2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am was played at Pebble Beach Golf Links, starting 3 February 2022. Tom Hoge won at 19 under par (268), 2 strokes ahead of Jordan Spieth. The winning card was 63, 69, 68 and 68, and the win paid $1,566,000. Jordan Spieth finished second, and Beau Hossler was third. 152 players started the event. The field averaged +0.001 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 74% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.

Final leaderboard

Top 20 of 152. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.

Model score

Backtest · reconstructed

Our course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 75 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.

Cgrade
Rank correlation
+0.384
Top-20 hit rate
70%
Top-10 avg model rank
16.4

Grade is this event’s percentile (69th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.

Who the model liked

Its top 10, and where they finished.

PlayerModelFinish
Patrick Cantlay1st4th
Seamus Power2nd9th
Lanto Griffin3rd16th
Justin Rose4th62nd
Jordan Spieth5th2nd
Maverick McNealy6th33rd
Matt Fitzpatrick7th6th
Brian Harman8th65th
Jason Day9th24th
Mackenzie Hughes10th16th

Where it was most wrong

Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.

PlayerModelFinish
Justin Rose4th62nd(+58)
Beau Hossler61st3rd(−58)
Brian Harman8th65th(+57)
Bo Van Pelt72nd24th(−48)
Aaron Rai19th65th(+46)
Jonathan Byrd55th9th(−46)
Kelly Kraft70th28th(−42)
Seth Reeves75th33rd(−42)
Robert Garrigus56th16th(−40)
Matt NeSmith26th65th(+39)

One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.

This event in the model

OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.

This week's modelProbabilities and the track recordHow the model works

The venue

This event was played at Pebble Beach Golf Links in Pebble Beach, California, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.

Common questions

Who won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in 2021-2022?

Tom Hoge won the 2021-2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at Pebble Beach Golf Links, finishing 19 under par.

Where was the 2021-2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am played?

The 2021-2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am was played at Pebble Beach Golf Links, starting 3 February 2022.

What was the winning score at the 2021-2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am?

The winning score was 19 under par (268 strokes), posted by Tom Hoge.

How many players were in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am field?

152 players started the 2021-2022 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Every one of them appears on the leaderboard below.

Where these numbers come from

Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.