Tournaments / 2015-2016
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
2016-02-11 · Pebble Beach Golf Links
- Winner
- Vaughn Taylor
- Winning score
- -17
- Field
- 150
- Field strength
- +0.057 SG
The 2015-2016 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am was played at Pebble Beach Golf Links, starting 11 February 2016. Vaughn Taylor won at 17 under par (270), 1 stroke ahead of Phil Mickelson. The winning card was 70, 68, 67 and 65, and the win paid $1,260,000. Phil Mickelson finished second, and Jonas Blixt was third. 150 players started the event. The field averaged +0.057 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 77% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.
Final leaderboard
Top 20 of 150. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.
- Vaughn Taylor
- Pos
- 1
- R1
- 70
- R2
- 68
- R3
- 67
- R4
- 65
- Total
- 270
- Phil Mickelson
- Pos
- 2
- R1
- 68
- R2
- 65
- R3
- 66
- R4
- 72
- Total
- 271
- Jonas Blixt
- Pos
- 3
- R1
- 67
- R2
- 69
- R3
- 67
- R4
- 69
- Total
- 272
- Freddie Jacobson
- Pos
- T4
- R1
- 65
- R2
- 69
- R3
- 68
- R4
- 71
- Total
- 273
- Hiroshi Iwata
- Pos
- T4
- R1
- 66
- R2
- 66
- R3
- 69
- R4
- 72
- Total
- 273
- Justin Rose
- Pos
- T6
- R1
- 66
- R2
- 68
- R3
- 72
- R4
- 69
- Total
- 275
- Patrick Reed
- Pos
- T6
- R1
- 72
- R2
- 65
- R3
- 73
- R4
- 65
- Total
- 275
- Bill Haas
- Pos
- T8
- R1
- 69
- R2
- 68
- R3
- 69
- R4
- 71
- Total
- 277
- Brooks Koepka
- Pos
- T8
- R1
- 68
- R2
- 70
- R3
- 69
- R4
- 70
- Total
- 277
- Roberto Castro
- Pos
- T8
- R1
- 66
- R2
- 70
- R3
- 67
- R4
- 74
- Total
- 277
- Cameron Smith
- Pos
- T11
- R1
- 64
- R2
- 75
- R3
- 69
- R4
- 70
- Total
- 278
- J.B. Holmes
- Pos
- T11
- R1
- 66
- R2
- 72
- R3
- 70
- R4
- 70
- Total
- 278
- Jason Day
- Pos
- T11
- R1
- 71
- R2
- 66
- R3
- 68
- R4
- 73
- Total
- 278
- Jimmy Walker
- Pos
- T11
- R1
- 72
- R2
- 71
- R3
- 63
- R4
- 72
- Total
- 278
- Lucas Glover
- Pos
- T11
- R1
- 73
- R2
- 66
- R3
- 72
- R4
- 67
- Total
- 278
- Matt Jones
- Pos
- T11
- R1
- 68
- R2
- 70
- R3
- 67
- R4
- 73
- Total
- 278
- Jim Herman
- Pos
- T17
- R1
- 69
- R2
- 67
- R3
- 72
- R4
- 71
- Total
- 279
- Kevin Streelman
- Pos
- T17
- R1
- 70
- R2
- 71
- R3
- 69
- R4
- 69
- Total
- 279
- Sung Kang
- Pos
- T17
- R1
- 72
- R2
- 60
- R3
- 70
- R4
- 77
- Total
- 279
- Tyler Aldridge
- Pos
- T17
- R1
- 70
- R2
- 72
- R3
- 68
- R4
- 69
- Total
- 279
Model score
Backtest · reconstructedOur course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 79 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.
- Rank correlation
- +0.440
- Top-20 hit rate
- 50%
- Top-10 avg model rank
- 25.4
Grade is this event’s percentile (83rd) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.
Who the model liked
Its top 10, and where they finished.
| Player | Model | Finish |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Spieth | 1st | 21st |
| Jason Day | 2nd | 11th |
| Brandt Snedeker | 3rd | 35th |
| Bubba Watson | 4th | 70th |
| Justin Rose | 5th | 6th |
| Jimmy Walker | 6th | 11th |
| Dustin Johnson | 7th | 41st |
| Ryan Palmer | 8th | 41st |
| Danny Lee | 9th | 30th |
| Brooks Koepka | 10th | 8th |
Where it was most wrong
Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.
| Player | Model | Finish |
|---|---|---|
| Bubba Watson | 4th | 70th(+66) |
| Jonas Blixt | 58th | 3rd(−55) |
| Tyler Aldridge | 69th | 17th(−52) |
| Sung Kang | 66th | 17th(−49) |
| Jerry Kelly | 21st | 69th(+48) |
| Jason Bohn | 14th | 58th(+44) |
| Hiroshi Iwata | 48th | 4th(−44) |
| Roberto Castro | 52nd | 8th(−44) |
| Hunter Mahan | 28th | 70th(+42) |
| Padraig Harrington | 62nd | 21st(−41) |
One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.
This event in the model
OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.
This week's modelProbabilities and the track recordHow the model works
The venue
This event was played at Pebble Beach Golf Links in Pebble Beach, California, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.
Common questions
Who won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in 2015-2016?
Where was the 2015-2016 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am played?
What was the winning score at the 2015-2016 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am?
How many players were in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am field?
Where these numbers come from
Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.