Tournaments / 2017-2018
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard
2018-03-15 · Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge
- Winner
- Rory McIlroy
- Winning score
- -18
- Field
- 116
- Field strength
- +0.346 SG
The 2017-2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, starting 15 March 2018. Rory McIlroy won at 18 under par (270), 3 strokes ahead of Bryson DeChambeau. The winning card was 69, 70, 67 and 64, and the win paid $1,602,000. Bryson DeChambeau finished second, and Justin Rose was third. 116 players started the event. The field averaged +0.346 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 84% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.
Final leaderboard
Top 20 of 116. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.
- Rory McIlroy
- Pos
- 1
- R1
- 69
- R2
- 70
- R3
- 67
- R4
- 64
- Total
- 270
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Pos
- 2
- R1
- 67
- R2
- 66
- R3
- 72
- R4
- 68
- Total
- 273
- Justin Rose
- Pos
- 3
- R1
- 69
- R2
- 71
- R3
- 67
- R4
- 67
- Total
- 274
- Henrik Stenson
- Pos
- 4
- R1
- 64
- R2
- 69
- R3
- 71
- R4
- 71
- Total
- 275
- Ryan Moore
- Pos
- T5
- R1
- 71
- R2
- 67
- R3
- 69
- R4
- 71
- Total
- 278
- Tiger Woods
- Pos
- T5
- R1
- 68
- R2
- 72
- R3
- 69
- R4
- 69
- Total
- 278
- Kevin Chappell
- Pos
- T7
- R1
- 70
- R2
- 70
- R3
- 73
- R4
- 67
- Total
- 280
- Luke List
- Pos
- T7
- R1
- 71
- R2
- 67
- R3
- 74
- R4
- 68
- Total
- 280
- Marc Leishman
- Pos
- T7
- R1
- 70
- R2
- 70
- R3
- 73
- R4
- 67
- Total
- 280
- Patrick Reed
- Pos
- T7
- R1
- 68
- R2
- 70
- R3
- 71
- R4
- 71
- Total
- 280
- Patrick Rodgers
- Pos
- T7
- R1
- 72
- R2
- 71
- R3
- 68
- R4
- 69
- Total
- 280
- Sean O'Hair
- Pos
- T7
- R1
- 72
- R2
- 71
- R3
- 69
- R4
- 68
- Total
- 280
- Chris Kirk
- Pos
- 13
- R1
- 71
- R2
- 69
- R3
- 70
- R4
- 71
- Total
- 281
- Bud Cauley
- Pos
- T14
- R1
- 72
- R2
- 67
- R3
- 70
- R4
- 73
- Total
- 282
- Byeong Hun An
- Pos
- T14
- R1
- 68
- R2
- 68
- R3
- 72
- R4
- 74
- Total
- 282
- Charles Howell III
- Pos
- T14
- R1
- 72
- R2
- 70
- R3
- 70
- R4
- 70
- Total
- 282
- Charley Hoffman
- Pos
- T14
- R1
- 71
- R2
- 66
- R3
- 71
- R4
- 74
- Total
- 282
- Grayson Murray
- Pos
- T14
- R1
- 71
- R2
- 69
- R3
- 69
- R4
- 73
- Total
- 282
- Kyle Stanley
- Pos
- T14
- R1
- 71
- R2
- 71
- R3
- 71
- R4
- 69
- Total
- 282
- Rickie Fowler
- Pos
- T14
- R1
- 67
- R2
- 71
- R3
- 70
- R4
- 74
- Total
- 282
Model score
Backtest · reconstructedOur course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 76 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.
- Rank correlation
- +0.353
- Top-20 hit rate
- 45%
- Top-10 avg model rank
- 16.7
Grade is this event’s percentile (60th) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.
Who the model liked
Its top 10, and where they finished.
| Player | Model | Finish |
|---|---|---|
| Rickie Fowler | 1st | 14th |
| Justin Rose | 2nd | 3rd |
| Henrik Stenson | 3rd | 4th |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 4th | 49th |
| Jason Day | 5th | 22nd |
| Francesco Molinari | 6th | 26th |
| Tiger Woods | 7th | 5th |
| Marc Leishman | 8th | 7th |
| Brian Harman | 9th | 54th |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 10th | 26th |
Where it was most wrong
Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.
| Player | Model | Finish |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Rodgers | 69th | 7th(−62) |
| Sam Horsfield | 74th | 14th(−60) |
| Tyrrell Hatton | 12th | 69th(+57) |
| Grayson Murray | 67th | 14th(−53) |
| Sean O'Hair | 53rd | 7th(−46) |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 4th | 49th(+45) |
| Brian Harman | 9th | 54th(+45) |
| Harris English | 66th | 22nd(−44) |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 44th | 2nd(−42) |
| Talor Gooch | 68th | 26th(−42) |
One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.
This event in the model
OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.
This week's modelProbabilities and the track recordHow the model works
The venue
This event was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.
Common questions
Who won the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard in 2017-2018?
Where was the 2017-2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard played?
What was the winning score at the 2017-2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard?
How many players were in the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard field?
Where these numbers come from
Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.