Tournaments / 2015-2016
Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard
2016-03-17 · Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge
- Winner
- Jason Day
- Winning score
- -17
- Field
- 118
- Field strength
- +0.225 SG
The 2015-2016 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge, starting 17 March 2016. Jason Day won at 17 under par (271), 1 stroke ahead of Kevin Chappell. The winning card was 66, 65, 70 and 70, and the win paid $1,134,000. Kevin Chappell finished second, and Henrik Stenson and Troy Merritt tied for third. 118 players started the event. The field averaged +0.225 strokes gained per round against the tour baseline, with strokes-gained data covering 86% of the players. The full leaderboard below lists every player's finish position, round scores and total to par. Every figure on this page comes from the published final leaderboard for the event — nothing here is estimated or modelled.
Final leaderboard
Top 20 of 118. Search finds any player in the field, including those who missed the cut.
- Jason Day
- Pos
- 1
- R1
- 66
- R2
- 65
- R3
- 70
- R4
- 70
- Total
- 271
- Kevin Chappell
- Pos
- 2
- R1
- 68
- R2
- 68
- R3
- 67
- R4
- 69
- Total
- 272
- Henrik Stenson
- Pos
- T3
- R1
- 67
- R2
- 66
- R3
- 70
- R4
- 71
- Total
- 274
- Troy Merritt
- Pos
- T3
- R1
- 67
- R2
- 69
- R3
- 67
- R4
- 71
- Total
- 274
- Zach Johnson
- Pos
- 5
- R1
- 70
- R2
- 70
- R3
- 68
- R4
- 68
- Total
- 276
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Pos
- T6
- R1
- 70
- R2
- 69
- R3
- 71
- R4
- 67
- Total
- 277
- Jamie Lovemark
- Pos
- T6
- R1
- 68
- R2
- 68
- R3
- 71
- R4
- 70
- Total
- 277
- Kiradech Aphibarnrat
- Pos
- T6
- R1
- 70
- R2
- 69
- R3
- 73
- R4
- 65
- Total
- 277
- Francesco Molinari
- Pos
- T9
- R1
- 68
- R2
- 72
- R3
- 69
- R4
- 69
- Total
- 278
- Justin Rose
- Pos
- T9
- R1
- 68
- R2
- 66
- R3
- 71
- R4
- 73
- Total
- 278
- Paul Casey
- Pos
- T9
- R1
- 68
- R2
- 69
- R3
- 72
- R4
- 69
- Total
- 278
- Adam Scott
- Pos
- T12
- R1
- 67
- R2
- 73
- R3
- 70
- R4
- 69
- Total
- 279
- Ben Martin
- Pos
- T12
- R1
- 71
- R2
- 70
- R3
- 71
- R4
- 67
- Total
- 279
- Chris Kirk
- Pos
- T12
- R1
- 68
- R2
- 71
- R3
- 69
- R4
- 71
- Total
- 279
- Derek Fathauer
- Pos
- T12
- R1
- 70
- R2
- 66
- R3
- 69
- R4
- 74
- Total
- 279
- Smylie Kaufman
- Pos
- T12
- R1
- 69
- R2
- 71
- R3
- 68
- R4
- 71
- Total
- 279
- Brian Harman
- Pos
- T17
- R1
- 69
- R2
- 71
- R3
- 70
- R4
- 70
- Total
- 280
- Emiliano Grillo
- Pos
- T17
- R1
- 68
- R2
- 71
- R3
- 68
- R4
- 73
- Total
- 280
- Marc Leishman
- Pos
- T17
- R1
- 67
- R2
- 70
- R3
- 74
- R4
- 69
- Total
- 280
- Billy Horschel
- Pos
- T20
- R1
- 72
- R2
- 67
- R3
- 74
- R4
- 68
- Total
- 281
Model score
Backtest · reconstructedOur course-fit model re-run as it would have seen this week — using only data that existed before the first tee shot — then compared with how the 76 players actually finished. It was not published in advance, so this measures the model, not a call we made.
- Rank correlation
- +0.271
- Top-20 hit rate
- 55%
- Top-10 avg model rank
- 20.6
Grade is this event’s percentile (32nd) against every other event we have scored — not an absolute pass mark. Rank correlation runs −1 to +1, where 0 is a coin flip and a full-field golf model landing near +0.35 is a genuine read.
Who the model liked
Its top 10, and where they finished.
| Player | Model | Finish |
|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | 1st | 27th |
| Henrik Stenson | 2nd | 3rd |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 3rd | 6th |
| Justin Rose | 4th | 9th |
| Jason Day | 5th | 1st |
| Zach Johnson | 6th | 5th |
| Paul Casey | 7th | 9th |
| Adam Scott | 8th | 12th |
| Brendan Steele | 9th | 46th |
| Ryan Palmer | 10th | 60th |
Where it was most wrong
Largest gaps between rank and result, either direction.
| Player | Model | Finish |
|---|---|---|
| Troy Merritt | 68th | 3rd(−65) |
| Ryan Moore | 11th | 74th(+63) |
| Kiradech Aphibarnrat | 66th | 6th(−60) |
| William McGirt | 16th | 73rd(+57) |
| Webb Simpson | 13th | 68th(+55) |
| Derek Fathauer | 67th | 12th(−55) |
| Rob Oppenheim | 75th | 20th(−55) |
| Chris Wood | 71st | 20th(−51) |
| Ryan Palmer | 10th | 60th(+50) |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 73rd | 27th(−46) |
One known caveat. Player stats, form and course history are all restricted to what existed before this event. The course archetype is not — it is derived from the venue’s full history, including this edition. That flatters the model slightly and equally at every venue. How the model works.
This event in the model
OTIS ranks every field on how well each player's game matches the course, then prices their chances. Both are published in full and graded afterwards.
This week's modelProbabilities and the track recordHow the model works
The venue
This event was played at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida, USA. The venue page carries its scorecard, hosting history and every other tour event played there.
Common questions
Who won the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard in 2015-2016?
Where was the 2015-2016 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard played?
What was the winning score at the 2015-2016 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard?
How many players were in the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard field?
Where these numbers come from
Finishes, round scores and to-par figures are the published final leaderboard for this event. Nothing is estimated or interpolated — where no value was published, this page shows a gap rather than a guess. Full sourcing notes are on the methodology page, and every stat name is defined in the glossary.