OTIS Golf
Model

Golf matchups this week

One permanent address for a weekly question. The pricer below is rebuilt for whichever event is on — this week’s groupings, this week’s ratings — at the fair, break-even price with no margin added. What the model thinks of the whole field is on the probability board.

Matchup pricer

Model outputs and probabilities are information, not betting advice. No projection or probability is a guaranteed winner. 21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

This week’s groupings priced as matchups — and any two, three or four players you pick — on the same published ratings as the probabilities board (disclosed model). Every quote is the fair, break-even price with no margin added — our probability in odds units, not a market. We take no bets, we show no market price, and we price nothing. Playing DFS instead? The value sheet scores this same field in DraftKings points.

What a matchup price is

A matchup asks which of two, three or four players finishes above the others — nothing about the rest of the field, and nothing about winning the tournament. It is the smallest question in golf and the one a rating system can answer most directly, because it needs only the gap between a handful of players rather than a view of a hundred and fifty. Every quote here is a fair price: the model's own probability written in odds units, with no margin added on either side. OTIS does not run a market, quote anybody else's number, or claim an edge over one. What the page gives you is this week's actual groupings priced as matchups, plus any players you care to put together, all off one published set of ratings, so no two panels can disagree about what they are pricing.

How each matchup is priced

Each player carries a per-round scoring rating and a spread. For two players the answer is exact and needs no simulation: the difference between two independent normal distributions is itself normal, so the chance that one finishes ahead of the other falls out of a single closed-form expression. Three and four-player groups have no such expression once several players compete for the top, so those are simulated — with every quote in a group drawn from the same simulation, which is what guarantees that finishing above everyone is never priced higher than finishing above each rival individually. The settlement basis is yours to set: the 72-hole total, or a single round. Mid-tournament, completed rounds can be folded in as evidence, and where the draw splits into waves the size of that adjustment is shown rather than buried.

What the price does not tell you

A fair price is not a bookmaker's price and is never presented beside one. It carries no margin, which means it is not a number anybody would offer you, and the difference between it and a real market price is not an edge this page will calculate. The model prices scoring distributions, not people: it does not know who is playing hurt, who is travelling badly, or what the group behind is doing. Its assumptions are simplifications and are stated as such — player scores are treated as independent, dead heats split evenly, and the tournament basis takes all four rounds even for a player who misses the cut. Ratings come from measured strokes gained, so a player without much measured data is flagged rather than quietly priced with false confidence.

Common questions

What is a golf matchup?

A matchup pairs two players (or groups three or four) and asks only which of them finishes above the others, regardless of where they place in the tournament. Because it depends on the gap between a handful of players rather than the whole field, it is the question a rating model can speak to most directly.

How are matchup prices calculated?

From each player's per-round scoring rating and its spread. Two-player matchups have an exact closed-form answer; groups of three or four are simulated, with all quotes in a group drawn from the same simulation so they stay mutually consistent. Every price is fair — the probability in odds units, with no margin.

Can I price a matchup for a single round instead of the whole tournament?

Yes. The settlement basis can be set to a single round or to the 72-hole total, and the same ratings are rescaled accordingly. During the tournament, rounds already completed can be folded in as evidence, and where the draw splits into waves the size of that adjustment is shown.

Does OTIS compare its prices to sportsbook odds?

No. No market price, line or implied probability appears anywhere on this page, and no edge is calculated against one. OTIS publishes its own fair number and the method behind it; comparing it to a market is left to the reader.

Sourcing is set out on the methodology page; every stat name is defined in the glossary.